- Reliability of mechanical components
- Probabilistic engineering analysis
and modeling
- Risk and economics-based inspections and repairs
- Statistical analysis of failure injury, and fatality rates
- Engineering and applied mechanics
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- Fracture mechanics and control
- Fatigue, creep, and corrosion analysis
- Stress analysis
- Consulting and expert testimony
- Structural imperfection effects
- Weld defect analysis
- Residual stress effects
- Failure prevention and analysis
- Software development
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WORK HISTORY
Current projects include failure and economic analysis of cycling power plants and of nuclear steam generator and piping component inspection and repairs. They also include analysis of accident and fatality rates due to rollover of sport-utility and other motor vehicles and effectiveness of seat belts and air bags.
Earlier work focused on power plant life and outage prediction using component reliability and economic outage and optimization models; development of structural life extension prediction techniques for several clients; principal investigator for several fracture control surveys sponsored by the United States Coast Guard, National Academy of Science, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); development of analytical life prediction methods and retirement-for-cause criteria for critical aircraft components; and development of fatigue analysis software for NASA applications. Principal developer of the BIGIF computer program for advanced fracture mechanics analysis. Development and application of statistical estimation techniques to forecast failure rates of mechanical components ranging from artificial heart valves to toilet tanks.
EDUCATION AND PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND
- B.S. (Applied Mechanics), Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (1965)
- M.S.E. (Engineering Mechanics) with Honors, University of Michigan (1966)
SELECTED REPORTS, PUBLICATIONS, AND INVITED LECTURES
The Cost of Cycling Coal Fired Power Plants, with S. Lefton, Power Plant O&M and Asset Optimization, Coal Power Magazine (Winter 2006).
Cost of Cycling, with S. Lefton and D. Agan, APTECH Report AES 05035709-2-3 (April 2006).
Cost of Cycling Analysis, with S. Lefton and D. Agan, APTECH Report AES 05115975-2-1 (March 2006).
Temperature Ramp Rate Effect on Rotor Life and Maintenance Costs, with S. Lefton, EPRI Report Chapter (February 2006).
Cost of Cycling Analysis, with S. Lefton and D. Agan, APTECH Report AES 05025685-2-1 (August 2005).
Cost of Cycling Analysis, with S. Lefton and D. Agan, APTECH Report AES 04125599-2-1 (August 2005).
Investigation of the Row “0” Compressor Blade Failures of the Moss Landing Gas Turbines, with T. Kuntz and S. Lefton, APTECH Report AES 04115567-2-1 (December 2004).
Cost of Cycling Analysis, with S. Lefton, D. Agan, and P. Grimsrud, APTECH Report AES 04015258-2-1 (September 2004).
First Estimates of the Cost to Cycle HRSGs, with S. Lefton, D. Agan, and J. Yavelak, APTECH Report AES 04075479-2-1 (August 2004).
Cost of Cycling Analysis, with S. Lefton, J. Yavelak, T. Kuntz, and D. Agan, APTECH Report AES 02104897-2-1 (June 2003).
Cost of Cycling System-Wide Report, with S. Lefton, P. Grimsrud, and T. Kuntz, APTECH Report AES 02064810-2-10 (May 2003).
Cost of Cycling Phase I Analysis, with S. Lefton, P. Grimsrud, T. Burnett, K. Hara, O. Nye, and R. Dail, APTECH Report AES 03024983-2-1 (May 2003).
Probabilistic Forecasts of Riviera Plant, Unit 4 Convective Superheater Tube Lives, APTECH Report AES 94042172-2-1 (December 1994).
Total Cost of Cycling Fossil Power Plants, with S. Lefton, P. Grimsrud, and J. Yavelak, APTECH Report AES 94052187-2-1 (December 1994)
Engineering Study to Determine the Effects of Load Cycling on Production Costs and Availability for Crystal River Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 3 - Phase I Program Scope and Plan, with S. Lefton, R. Cipolla, R. Uffer, A. Curtis, and E. Zebroski, APTECH Report AES 94072242-1-1 (September 1994).
Probabilistic Risk Analysis to Justify Elimination of Using Brackish Water for Emergency Cooling of Steam Generators, with A. Curtis, E. Zebroski, R. Uffer, M. Cohn, and B. Siegel, APTECH Report AES 92121826-1Q-1 (March 1994).
Engineering Reliability Analysis of Pipe Welds Subject to Creep Failures, with S. Paterson and H. Vaillancourt, APTECH Report AES 92101790-2-1 (September 1993).
Engineering Reliability Forecasts for Tube Plugging at Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, Units 1, 2, and 3, APTECH Report AES 92071723-1-1 (March 1993).
Strategic Decision Analysis for Steam Generator Replacement, with A. Curtis and J. Parkes, APTECH Report AES 93021854-1-1 (February 1993).
Review and Improvement of Tennessee Valley Authority Estimates of Cycling Costs, with S. Lefton, APTECH Report AES 92051685-2-1 (September 1992).
Reliability Evaluation of a Pair of 18MN-5CR Generator Retaining Rings in Use at Suncor, Inc.'s Tar Island Facility, with S. Paterson and H. Vaillancourt, APTECH Report AES 92081746-2-1 (September 1992).
Nondestructive Evaluation and Mechanical Integrity Assessment of Butane Storage Sphere 20d-91, with M. Kunjapur and S. Miller, APTECH Report AES 92071730-3-1 (August 1992).
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